NFL recap

Week 5 · 2026 — graded

Every completed week, the TD Board gets graded against what actually happened — the board exactly as it was published, no retouching. Settled like the bet: a pick who didn't play voids. TDs = rushing or receiving, the outcome the model is calibrated on.

This week's board →

2026 · Wk 1 2026 · Wk 2 2026 · Wk 3 2026 · Wk 4 2026 · Wk 5

Tier A

20/39

scored · expected 15.1 · 3 void

Tier B

9/38

scored · expected 11.1 · 4 void

Tier Sleeper

6/32

scored · expected 6.3 · 10 void

Overall

35/109

scored · expected 32.5 · 17 void

Week	A	B	Sleeper	Overall
2026 · Wk 5	20/39exp 15.1	9/38exp 11.1	6/32exp 6.3	35/109exp 32.5
2026 · Wk 4	22/41exp 15.7	10/39exp 11.1	5/33exp 6.2	37/113exp 33.0
2026 · Wk 3	11/40exp 15.3	12/37exp 10.5	9/39exp 7.5	32/116exp 33.3
2026 · Wk 2	14/36exp 13.9	11/41exp 11.9	4/32exp 6.6	29/109exp 32.4
2026 · Wk 1	18/34exp 13.4	11/40exp 12.1	11/35exp 7.6	40/109exp 33.1

TB@

DAL4/8 hitThu · Oct 8 · 8:15 PM ET

A
Javonte WilliamsRB1
✓ TD
92.641.4% TD
A
Bucky IrvingRB1
✓ 2 TDs
88.341.4% TD
B
Emeka EgbukaWR1
✓ TD
72.632.1% TD
S
George PickensWR2
✓ TD
42.919.1% TD

PHI@

JAX2/9 hitSun · Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

A
Parker WashingtonWR1
✓ 2 TDs
91.541.4% TD
S
Darius CooperWR5
✓ TD
37.313.7% TD

CHI@

GB3/9 hitSun · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

A
D'Andre SwiftRB1
✓ TD
91.141.4% TD
A
Christian WatsonWR1
✓ 2 TDs
83.436.5% TD
B
MarShawn LloydRB1
✓ 2 TDs
60.627.4% TD

LV@

NE3/9 hitSun · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

B
Brock BowersTE1
✓ TD
68.428.7% TD
S
Rhamondre StevensonRB1
✓ TD
47.219.8% TD
S
Hunter HenryTE1
✓ TD
36.816.4% TD

MIN@

NO1/5 hitSun · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

S
Kendre MillerRB2
✓ TD
33.916.1% TD

CLE@

NYJ3/9 hitSun · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Garrett WilsonWR1
✓ TD
80.035.7% TD
B
Braelon AllenRB2
✓ TD
60.727.4% TD
B
Denzel BostonWR1
✓ TD
50.520.2% TD

IND@

PIT3/8 hitSun · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Jaylen WarrenRB1
✓ 2 TDs
83.237.8% TD
A
Tyler WarrenTE1
✓ TD
71.632.2% TD
B
Pat FreiermuthTE2
✓ 2 TDs
66.428.7% TD

HOU@

TEN0/8 hitSun · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

None of the 8 ranked threats who played scored.

NYG@

WAS3/8 hitSun · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB1
✓ TD
85.041.4% TD
A
Isaiah LikelyTE1
✓ 2 TDs
77.333.4% TD
B
Malik NabersWR1
✓ TD
65.028.6% TD

DEN@

LAC2/8 hitSun · Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET

A
J.K. DobbinsRB1
✓ TD
79.238.5% TD
A
Courtland SuttonWR2
✓ TD
63.628.3% TD

DET@

ARI1/5 hitSun · Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

A
Trey McBrideTE1
✓ TD
96.041.4% TD

SF@

SEA4/9 hitSun · Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

A
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR1
✓ TD
92.641.4% TD
A
Christian McCaffreyRB1
✓ TD
92.441.4% TD
A
Emanuel WilsonRB1
✓ TD
90.041.4% TD
B
Mike EvansWR1
✓ TD
72.932.8% TD

BAL@

ATL1/7 hitSun · Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET

A
Derrick HenryRB1
✓ TD
91.241.4% TD

BUF@

LA5/7 hitMon · Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

A
Kyren WilliamsRB1
✓ TD
93.941.4% TD
A
James Cook IIIRB1
✓ 2 TDs
91.741.4% TD
A
Puka NacuaWR1
✓ TD
89.139.1% TD
B
Davante AdamsWR2
✓ 2 TDs
65.627.4% TD
S
Keon ColemanWR3
✓ TD
47.020.7% TD

Each card lists only the ranked threats who scored; the "N/M hit" badge and the tier totals above count everyone, so the misses are in every rate on this page. Graded from the week's stored board — Tier A / B / Sleeper are the top 3 / next 3 / next 3 per game, exactly as published. "Expected" is the sum of the model's calibrated TD probabilities over settled picks: if the calibration is honest, hits should track it over a season. DNPs void, same as the bet. 8 picks have no game log in the grading build (players who dropped off the featured list between builds) — shown as "no log" and left out of the rates rather than counted as misses.