NFL recap

Week 1 · 2026 — graded

Every completed week, the TD Board gets graded against what actually happened — the board exactly as it was published, no retouching. Settled like the bet: a pick who didn't play voids. TDs = rushing or receiving, the outcome the model is calibrated on.

This week's board →

2026 · Wk 1 2026 · Wk 2 2026 · Wk 3 2026 · Wk 4 2026 · Wk 5

Tier A

18/34

scored · expected 13.4 · 14 void

Tier B

11/40

scored · expected 12.1 · 8 void

Tier Sleeper

11/35

scored · expected 7.6 · 13 void

Overall

40/109

scored · expected 33.1 · 35 void

Week	A	B	Sleeper	Overall
2026 · Wk 5	20/39exp 15.1	9/38exp 11.1	6/32exp 6.3	35/109exp 32.5
2026 · Wk 4	22/41exp 15.7	10/39exp 11.1	5/33exp 6.2	37/113exp 33.0
2026 · Wk 3	11/40exp 15.3	12/37exp 10.5	9/39exp 7.5	32/116exp 33.3
2026 · Wk 2	14/36exp 13.9	11/41exp 11.9	4/32exp 6.6	29/109exp 32.4
2026 · Wk 1	18/34exp 13.4	11/40exp 12.1	11/35exp 7.6	40/109exp 33.1

NE@

SEA1/7 hitWed · Sep 9 · 8:20 PM ET

A
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR1
✓ TD
85.540.0% TD

SF@

LA3/9 hitThu · Sep 10 · 8:35 PM ET

A
Kyren WilliamsRB1
✓ TD
89.441.4% TD
B
Deebo SamuelWR2
✓ TD
82.538.3% TD
S
Mike EvansWR1
✓ TD
61.227.4% TD

CHI@

CAR3/8 hitSun · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET

A
D'Andre SwiftRB1
✓ 3 TDs
91.341.4% TD
A
Chuba HubbardRB1
✓ 2 TDs
86.341.4% TD
B
Kyle MonangaiRB2
✓ TD
71.032.8% TD

TB@

CIN1/4 hitSun · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Bucky IrvingRB1
✓ TD
88.541.4% TD

NO@

DET2/3 hitSun · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET

S
Juwan JohnsonTE1
✓ TD
39.216.6% TD
S
Devaughn VeleWR2
✓ TD
38.816.6% TD

BUF@

HOU3/8 hitSun · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Nico CollinsWR1
✓ TD
75.134.1% TD
B
David MontgomeryRB1
✓ 3 TDs
71.332.7% TD
B
DJ MooreWR1
✓ TD
61.327.4% TD

BAL@

IND4/8 hitSun · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Jonathan TaylorRB1
✓ 2 TDs
91.341.4% TD
A
Derrick HenryRB1
✓ 3 TDs
89.241.4% TD
A
Zay FlowersWR1
✓ TD
78.232.8% TD
S
Tyler WarrenTE1
✓ TD
63.027.9% TD

CLE@

JAX4/9 hitSun · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Jakobi MeyersWR3
✓ TD
68.932.4% TD
B
Parker WashingtonWR2
✓ TD
62.027.4% TD
S
Brenton StrangeTE1
✓ TD
39.516.5% TD
S
Denzel BostonWR3
✓ TD
32.315.2% TD

ATL@

PIT2/8 hitSun · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Bijan RobinsonRB1
✓ TD
92.941.4% TD
S
Pat FreiermuthTE1
✓ TD
36.816.4% TD

NYJ@

TEN2/8 hitSun · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Breece HallRB1
✓ TD
88.041.4% TD
S
Elic AyomanorWR5
✓ TD
60.427.4% TD

ARI@

LAC3/7 hitSun · Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET

A
Ladd McConkeyWR1
✓ TD
83.338.9% TD
B
Omarion HamptonRB1
✓ TD
80.335.1% TD
B
Trey McBrideTE1
✓ TD
77.334.0% TD

MIA@

LV1/3 hitSun · Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET

A
Ashton JeantyRB1
✓ 2 TDs
93.441.4% TD

GB@

MIN1/3 hitSun · Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET

B
Christian WatsonWR1
✓ 2 TDs
59.027.4% TD

WAS@

PHI3/7 hitSun · Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET

A
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB1
✓ TD
89.741.4% TD
A
Dallas GoedertTE1
✓ 2 TDs
84.836.3% TD
S
Stefon DiggsWR2
✓ TD
60.627.4% TD

DAL@

NYG4/8 hitSun · Sep 13 · 8:20 PM ET

A
Javonte WilliamsRB1
✓ 2 TDs
95.341.4% TD
B
Cam SkatteboRB1
✓ TD
76.533.9% TD
B
CeeDee LambWR1
✓ TD
67.830.4% TD
S
Devin SingletaryRB4
✓ TD
61.527.4% TD

DEN@

KC3/9 hitMon · Sep 14 · 8:15 PM ET

A
Kenneth Walker IIIRB1
✓ 2 TDs
85.741.4% TD
B
Rashee RiceWR1
✓ TD
74.234.1% TD
S
Evan EngramTE1
✓ TD
33.413.9% TD

Each card lists only the ranked threats who scored; the "N/M hit" badge and the tier totals above count everyone, so the misses are in every rate on this page. Graded from the week's stored board — Tier A / B / Sleeper are the top 3 / next 3 / next 3 per game, exactly as published. "Expected" is the sum of the model's calibrated TD probabilities over settled picks: if the calibration is honest, hits should track it over a season. DNPs void, same as the bet. 32 picks have no game log in the grading build (players who dropped off the featured list between builds) — shown as "no log" and left out of the rates rather than counted as misses.