NFL recap

Week 2 · 2026 — graded

Every completed week, the TD Board gets graded against what actually happened — the board exactly as it was published, no retouching. Settled like the bet: a pick who didn't play voids. TDs = rushing or receiving, the outcome the model is calibrated on.

This week's board →

2026 · Wk 1 2026 · Wk 2 2026 · Wk 3 2026 · Wk 4 2026 · Wk 5

Tier A

14/36

scored · expected 13.9 · 12 void

Tier B

11/41

scored · expected 11.9 · 7 void

Tier Sleeper

4/32

scored · expected 6.6 · 16 void

Overall

29/109

scored · expected 32.4 · 35 void

Week	A	B	Sleeper	Overall
2026 · Wk 5	20/39exp 15.1	9/38exp 11.1	6/32exp 6.3	35/109exp 32.5
2026 · Wk 4	22/41exp 15.7	10/39exp 11.1	5/33exp 6.2	37/113exp 33.0
2026 · Wk 3	11/40exp 15.3	12/37exp 10.5	9/39exp 7.5	32/116exp 33.3
2026 · Wk 2	14/36exp 13.9	11/41exp 11.9	4/32exp 6.6	29/109exp 32.4
2026 · Wk 1	18/34exp 13.4	11/40exp 12.1	11/35exp 7.6	40/109exp 33.1

DET@

BUF2/5 hitThu · Sep 17 · 8:15 PM ET

A
James Cook IIIRB1
✓ TD
88.641.4% TD
B
Dalton KincaidTE1
✓ TD
62.128.2% TD

CAR@

ATL1/9 hitSun · Sep 20 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Chuba HubbardRB1
✓ TD
86.841.4% TD

NO@

BAL2/6 hitSun · Sep 20 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Derrick HenryRB1
✓ TD
94.541.4% TD
B
Chris OlaveWR1
✓ TD
69.529.8% TD

MIN@

CHI0/4 hitSun · Sep 20 · 1:00 PM ET

None of the 4 ranked threats who played scored.

CIN@

HOU0/3 hitSun · Sep 20 · 1:00 PM ET

None of the 3 ranked threats who played scored.

PIT@

NE1/8 hitSun · Sep 20 · 1:00 PM ET

A
TreVeyon HendersonRB2
✓ TD
92.441.4% TD

GB@

NYJ4/8 hitSun · Sep 20 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Christian WatsonWR1
✓ TD
69.532.3% TD
B
Garrett WilsonWR1
✓ TD
49.922.9% TD
B
Braelon AllenRB2
✓ TD
38.219.0% TD
S
MarShawn LloydRB1
✓ TD
35.916.4% TD

CLE@

TB2/9 hitSun · Sep 20 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Emeka EgbukaWR1
✓ TD
73.032.9% TD
S
Denzel BostonWR3
✓ TD
31.513.4% TD

PHI@

TEN1/7 hitSun · Sep 20 · 1:00 PM ET

B
DeVonta SmithWR1
✓ TD
65.929.2% TD

JAX@

DEN0/8 hitSun · Sep 20 · 4:05 PM ET

None of the 8 ranked threats who played scored.

LV@

LAC2/6 hitSun · Sep 20 · 4:05 PM ET

B
Omarion HamptonRB1
✓ TD
68.131.3% TD
S
Tre TuckerWR1
✓ TD
56.524.7% TD

SEA@

ARI3/8 hitSun · Sep 20 · 4:25 PM ET

A
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR1
✓ 3 TDs
91.341.4% TD
A
Trey McBrideTE1
✓ TD
71.531.0% TD
B
AJ BarnerTE1
✓ TD
65.827.4% TD

WAS@

DAL3/8 hitSun · Sep 20 · 4:25 PM ET

A
CeeDee LambWR1
✓ 2 TDs
86.239.9% TD
B
Jake FergusonTE1
✓ 2 TDs
77.733.6% TD
B
Stefon DiggsWR2
✓ 2 TDs
75.234.5% TD

MIA@

SF2/5 hitSun · Sep 20 · 4:25 PM ET

A
Christian McCaffreyRB1
✓ 2 TDs
94.741.4% TD
B
George KittleTE1
✓ TD
64.628.6% TD

IND@

KC4/8 hitSun · Sep 20 · 8:20 PM ET

A
Jonathan TaylorRB1
✓ 2 TDs
92.641.4% TD
A
Tyler WarrenTE1
✓ TD
77.934.9% TD
B
Xavier WorthyWR2
✓ TD
62.027.4% TD
S
Travis KelceTE1
✓ TD
40.316.5% TD

NYG@

LA2/7 hitMon · Sep 21 · 8:15 PM ET

A
Kyren WilliamsRB1
✓ TD
89.241.4% TD
A
Davante AdamsWR2
✓ 2 TDs
87.340.5% TD

Each card lists only the ranked threats who scored; the "N/M hit" badge and the tier totals above count everyone, so the misses are in every rate on this page. Graded from the week's stored board — Tier A / B / Sleeper are the top 3 / next 3 / next 3 per game, exactly as published. "Expected" is the sum of the model's calibrated TD probabilities over settled picks: if the calibration is honest, hits should track it over a season. DNPs void, same as the bet. 26 picks have no game log in the grading build (players who dropped off the featured list between builds) — shown as "no log" and left out of the rates rather than counted as misses.