NFL recap

Week 4 · 2026 — graded

Every completed week, the TD Board gets graded against what actually happened — the board exactly as it was published, no retouching. Settled like the bet: a pick who didn't play voids. TDs = rushing or receiving, the outcome the model is calibrated on.

This week's board →

2026 · Wk 1 2026 · Wk 2 2026 · Wk 3 2026 · Wk 4 2026 · Wk 5

Tier A

22/41

scored · expected 15.7 · 4 void

Tier B

10/39

scored · expected 11.1 · 6 void

Tier Sleeper

5/33

scored · expected 6.2 · 12 void

Overall

37/113

scored · expected 33.0 · 22 void

Week	A	B	Sleeper	Overall
2026 · Wk 5	20/39exp 15.1	9/38exp 11.1	6/32exp 6.3	35/109exp 32.5
2026 · Wk 4	22/41exp 15.7	10/39exp 11.1	5/33exp 6.2	37/113exp 33.0
2026 · Wk 3	11/40exp 15.3	12/37exp 10.5	9/39exp 7.5	32/116exp 33.3
2026 · Wk 2	14/36exp 13.9	11/41exp 11.9	4/32exp 6.6	29/109exp 32.4
2026 · Wk 1	18/34exp 13.4	11/40exp 12.1	11/35exp 7.6	40/109exp 33.1

PIT@

CLE3/7 hitThu · Oct 1 · 8:15 PM ET

A
Quinshon JudkinsRB1
✓ TD
79.835.9% TD
B
Pat FreiermuthTE2
✓ TD
64.527.4% TD
B
Harold Fannin Jr.TE1
✓ TD
63.027.4% TD

IND@

WAS1/7 hitSun · Oct 4 · 9:30 AM ET

A
Jonathan TaylorRB1
✓ 2 TDs
91.341.4% TD

TEN@

BAL5/8 hitSun · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Derrick HenryRB1
✓ TD
92.941.4% TD
A
Zay FlowersWR1
✓ TD
80.436.0% TD
A
Tony PollardRB1
✓ TD
74.635.2% TD
B
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR2
✓ TD
73.531.9% TD
S
Mark AndrewsTE1
✓ TD
32.713.9% TD

NE@

BUF2/7 hitSun · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

A
James Cook IIIRB1
✓ TD
91.541.4% TD
S
Rhamondre StevensonRB1
✓ TD
40.616.4% TD

NYJ@

CHI1/9 hitSun · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Kyle MonangaiRB2
✓ 2 TDs
65.431.4% TD

JAX@

CIN1/5 hitSun · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

S
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB2
✓ TD
62.629.9% TD

DAL@

HOU4/9 hitSun · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Javonte WilliamsRB1
✓ 3 TDs
92.641.4% TD
A
Nico CollinsWR1
✓ 2 TDs
89.841.4% TD
A
Woody MarksRB2
✓ TD
88.341.4% TD
B
CeeDee LambWR1
✓ TD
76.932.9% TD

ARI@

NYG2/8 hitSun · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Tyler AllgeierRB2
✓ TD
79.839.0% TD
B
Malik NabersWR1
✓ TD
62.527.4% TD

LA@

PHI2/7 hitSun · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Kyren WilliamsRB1
✓ 2 TDs
90.741.4% TD
A
Puka NacuaWR1
✓ TD
76.233.4% TD

GB@

TB3/9 hitSun · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

B
Matthew GoldenWR2
✓ TD
61.927.4% TD
B
Kenny GainwellRB2
✓ TD
50.520.3% TD
S
Tucker KraftTE1
✓ TD
38.516.3% TD

KC@

LV2/8 hitSun · Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET

A
Kenneth Walker IIIRB1
✓ 2 TDs
91.341.4% TD
A
Brock BowersTE1
✓ TD
84.136.9% TD

LAC@

SEA2/8 hitSun · Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET

A
Omarion HamptonRB1
✓ TD
88.541.1% TD
A
Emanuel WilsonRB1
✓ 2 TDs
76.937.3% TD

DEN@

SF3/9 hitSun · Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET

A
Christian McCaffreyRB1
✓ TD
96.041.4% TD
A
George KittleTE1
✓ TD
79.733.8% TD
A
Deebo SamuelWR2
✓ TD
77.236.1% TD

DET@

CAR2/4 hitSun · Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ET

A
Chuba HubbardRB1
✓ 2 TDs
88.041.4% TD
B
Tetairoa McMillanWR1
✓ 2 TDs
68.729.2% TD

ATL@

NO4/8 hitMon · Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET

A
Bijan RobinsonRB1
✓ 2 TDs
95.041.4% TD
B
Devaughn VeleWR2
✓ TD
64.827.4% TD
B
Brian Robinson Jr.RB2
✓ 3 TDs
56.625.9% TD
S
Alvin KamaraRB1
✓ 2 TDs
34.816.0% TD

Each card lists only the ranked threats who scored; the "N/M hit" badge and the tier totals above count everyone, so the misses are in every rate on this page. Graded from the week's stored board — Tier A / B / Sleeper are the top 3 / next 3 / next 3 per game, exactly as published. "Expected" is the sum of the model's calibrated TD probabilities over settled picks: if the calibration is honest, hits should track it over a season. DNPs void, same as the bet. 13 picks have no game log in the grading build (players who dropped off the featured list between builds) — shown as "no log" and left out of the rates rather than counted as misses.