NFL recap

Week 3 · 2026 — graded

Every completed week, the TD Board gets graded against what actually happened — the board exactly as it was published, no retouching. Settled like the bet: a pick who didn't play voids. TDs = rushing or receiving, the outcome the model is calibrated on.

This week's board →

2026 · Wk 1 2026 · Wk 2 2026 · Wk 3 2026 · Wk 4 2026 · Wk 5

Tier A

11/40

scored · expected 15.3 · 8 void

Tier B

12/37

scored · expected 10.5 · 11 void

Tier Sleeper

9/39

scored · expected 7.5 · 9 void

Overall

32/116

scored · expected 33.3 · 28 void

Week	A	B	Sleeper	Overall
2026 · Wk 5	20/39exp 15.1	9/38exp 11.1	6/32exp 6.3	35/109exp 32.5
2026 · Wk 4	22/41exp 15.7	10/39exp 11.1	5/33exp 6.2	37/113exp 33.0
2026 · Wk 3	11/40exp 15.3	12/37exp 10.5	9/39exp 7.5	32/116exp 33.3
2026 · Wk 2	14/36exp 13.9	11/41exp 11.9	4/32exp 6.6	29/109exp 32.4
2026 · Wk 1	18/34exp 13.4	11/40exp 12.1	11/35exp 7.6	40/109exp 33.1

ATL@

GB4/9 hitThu · Sep 24 · 8:15 PM ET

A
Bijan RobinsonRB1
✓ 2 TDs
91.041.4% TD
A
Christian WatsonWR1
✓ TD
84.136.3% TD
S
Matthew GoldenWR3
✓ TD
42.116.5% TD
S
Brian Robinson Jr.RB2
✓ TD
41.920.4% TD

LAC@

BUF1/8 hitSun · Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET

A
James Cook IIIRB1
✓ TD
89.641.4% TD

CAR@

CLE1/8 hitSun · Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET

B
Harold Fannin Jr.TE1
✓ 2 TDs
36.214.2% TD

NYJ@

DET2/4 hitSun · Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET

B
Garrett WilsonWR1
✓ TD
65.327.8% TD
S
Kenyon SadiqTE1
✓ TD
42.116.3% TD

HOU@

IND2/9 hitSun · Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Woody MarksRB2
✓ TD
84.038.6% TD
B
Keenan AllenWR2
✓ TD
63.528.0% TD

NE@

JAX4/8 hitSun · Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Bhayshul TutenRB1
✓ TD
89.141.4% TD
A
Parker WashingtonWR1
✓ TD
72.433.7% TD
B
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB2
✓ TD
58.927.4% TD
S
Jakobi MeyersWR3
✓ TD
55.025.8% TD

KC@

MIA2/5 hitSun · Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Kenneth Walker IIIRB1
✓ 2 TDs
92.941.4% TD
B
Travis KelceTE1
✓ TD
62.727.9% TD

TEN@

NYG1/7 hitSun · Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET

B
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR2
✓ TD
61.427.4% TD

CIN@

PIT1/3 hitSun · Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET

S
DK MetcalfWR1
✓ TD
45.220.1% TD

SEA@

WAS3/9 hitSun · Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET

A
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR1
✓ 2 TDs
88.038.5% TD
B
Rachaad WhiteRB2
✓ TD
37.716.3% TD
S
Terry McLaurinWR1
✓ TD
37.016.1% TD

ARI@

SF5/9 hitSun · Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET

A
Christian McCaffreyRB1
✓ TD
91.341.4% TD
B
George KittleTE1
✓ 2 TDs
83.737.7% TD
B
Mike EvansWR1
✓ 2 TDs
65.429.0% TD
S
Jeremiyah LoveRB1
✓ TD
62.327.4% TD
S
Michael WilsonWR1
✓ TD
42.717.9% TD

MIN@

TB0/4 hitSun · Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET

None of the 4 ranked threats who played scored.

BAL@

DAL3/9 hitSun · Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET

A
Derrick HenryRB1
✓ 2 TDs
93.941.4% TD
A
Javonte WilliamsRB1
✓ TD
91.341.4% TD
B
Jake FergusonTE1
✓ TD
79.735.3% TD

LV@

NO2/8 hitSun · Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET

B
Juwan JohnsonTE1
✓ 2 TDs
72.032.0% TD
B
Brock BowersTE1
✓ TD
67.828.3% TD

LA@

DEN0/8 hitSun · Sep 27 · 8:20 PM ET

None of the 8 ranked threats who played scored.

PHI@

CHI1/8 hitMon · Sep 28 · 8:15 PM ET

S
Luther Burden IIIWR2
✓ TD
31.913.2% TD

Each card lists only the ranked threats who scored; the "N/M hit" badge and the tier totals above count everyone, so the misses are in every rate on this page. Graded from the week's stored board — Tier A / B / Sleeper are the top 3 / next 3 / next 3 per game, exactly as published. "Expected" is the sum of the model's calibrated TD probabilities over settled picks: if the calibration is honest, hits should track it over a season. DNPs void, same as the bet. 23 picks have no game log in the grading build (players who dropped off the featured list between builds) — shown as "no log" and left out of the rates rather than counted as misses.